actually its not....your hearing about the buzz bc you know the chartacter and are following it...the average american doesnt know anything about this movie or the skit or the hbo show or the fact that its even opening...the tracking had it opening below SC3....the awareness/interest polls had it WELL WELL below SC3 and other films....
they cut it back to A) eliminate the race to win the box office for the week bc Borat WOULDNT be the #1 of the week and it might not even make the #2 slot thus creating the illusion of a "disappointment" at the box office...cut it back and now there are no expectations to be the #1 new release....
B) increase its PTA to ridiculous #'s bc they will be highest of all new releases that week bc of its limited theatre count...they can build on that..
C) Get the buzz out from those who will see it that weekend IE: the cult like following Borat/SBC has from the HBO show who will drive out of their way to see it opening weekend...
they cut it back to A) eliminate the race to win the box office for the week bc Borat WOULDNT be the #1 of the week and it might not even make the #2 slot thus creating the illusion of a "disappointment" at the box office...cut it back and now there are no expectations to be the #1 new release....
B) increase its PTA to ridiculous #'s bc they will be highest of all new releases that week bc of its limited theatre count...they can build on that..
C) Get the buzz out from those who will see it that weekend IE: the cult like following Borat/SBC has from the HBO show who will drive out of their way to see it opening weekend...
yes exactly...i forgot to add that..
its actually a decent marketing ploy...just like i said above...if they come out guns blazing and finish the week 3rd it "looks like a disappointment" they reduce the theatres, the diehards come out for it...pump up the PTA...spread the word and then opening it wide the following week...
the movie only cost 17m to make...its gonna make money no matter what...i want to see it opening weekend myself...
its actually a decent marketing ploy...just like i said above...if they come out guns blazing and finish the week 3rd it "looks like a disappointment" they reduce the theatres, the diehards come out for it...pump up the PTA...spread the word and then opening it wide the following week...
the movie only cost 17m to make...its gonna make money no matter what...i want to see it opening weekend myself...
Final theatre count for this weekend is 837, so no worries about some huge increase to throw this over all the numbers. I would suggest getting in on the under $11 now if you plan to play it because once that 837 is all over the net people are gonna play the under hard and probably move it to -200 or more.
-Brendan
-Brendan
got this off a movie board bc i think its a pretty informative post...not trying to sway people either way...
Borat predictions
Opening on 800 theaters so for it to make let's say 12M, it need to ave $15K / theatres.
Here are opening weekend w/ above or about $15K ave broken down by month.
Jan - SW Ep 4 (Re-release)
Feb - Passion of Christ, Hannibal, Diary of Mad Black Woman
Mar - Ice Age
Apr - None
May- Spidey 1, SW Ep 3, X3, Shrek 2, Matrix 2, SW Ep 2, SW Ep 6, X2, Jurassic 2,, SW Ep 1, Finding Nemo, Da Vinci Code, Day After Tomorrow, Mummy 2, Bruce Almighty, Pearl Harbor, Twister, MI 2, MI, Indy 3, Van Helsing
June - Fah 9/11, HP 3, Jurassic 1, Batman 1/2/3/4, Hulk, Austin Power 1, Lion King, Scooby Doo, Jaws 2, Fast & Furious 1/2, Cars, Mr/Mrs Smith
July - Pirates 2, Blair Witch, Spidey 2, Austin Power 2, Planet of Apes, X1, Indep. Day, MIB, War of Worlds, Bourne 2, Fantastic 4, Forrest Gump, I Robot, Charlie Chocolate, Jurassic 3
Aug - Rush Hour 2, Signs, Ame Pie 2
Sep - None
Oct - None
Nov - Harry 1/2/4, 8 Mile, Monsters, Incredibles, Toy Story 2, Grinch, Aladdin, Rocky 4, Back to Future 2, Waterboy, Ace Ventura
Dec - LOTR 1/2/3, Narnia
Borat does not fit anywhere on that list.
Only 18 movies were outside of summer blockbuster months and those were super-hyped/advertised by studios and well known by public (except 1, more on this later).
From list, only 6 are R-rated.
Indy small movies that are comparable to Borat are Diary, Fah 9/11 and Blair Witch. 9/11 and Blair had obscene WOM via anti-Bush sentiment and Internet buzz (1st of its kind for movies). They had smaller releases pre-open wk to create WOM. Diary was a surprise hit (lone exception) but that had a very large African-Ame audience. That bring up Ori King of Comedy (13K) but that had same audience as Diary.
Heck, even the studio admitted the movie is not tracking well and reason for opening at 800. How often does a studio do that w/ their own movie???
OK, you say a smaller release might provide higher ave but if recent movies w/ similar theatres ct like Chicago, Crouching Tiger, Evita, Royal Tenabaums, About Schmidt, Hand Rock Cradle, Brokeback Mountain, The Doors, Dead Poet Society, Boyz in Hood, When Harry Met Sally, Ame Beauty couldn't even do 14K, don't see how Borat can do 15K.
Borat will be a hit given the very positive WOM and critics review, but no way will it get to 12 mil this weekend w/ this few theatres, much less the 16/18/20 mil that have been predicted here.
Borat predictions
Opening on 800 theaters so for it to make let's say 12M, it need to ave $15K / theatres.
Here are opening weekend w/ above or about $15K ave broken down by month.
Jan - SW Ep 4 (Re-release)
Feb - Passion of Christ, Hannibal, Diary of Mad Black Woman
Mar - Ice Age
Apr - None
May- Spidey 1, SW Ep 3, X3, Shrek 2, Matrix 2, SW Ep 2, SW Ep 6, X2, Jurassic 2,, SW Ep 1, Finding Nemo, Da Vinci Code, Day After Tomorrow, Mummy 2, Bruce Almighty, Pearl Harbor, Twister, MI 2, MI, Indy 3, Van Helsing
June - Fah 9/11, HP 3, Jurassic 1, Batman 1/2/3/4, Hulk, Austin Power 1, Lion King, Scooby Doo, Jaws 2, Fast & Furious 1/2, Cars, Mr/Mrs Smith
July - Pirates 2, Blair Witch, Spidey 2, Austin Power 2, Planet of Apes, X1, Indep. Day, MIB, War of Worlds, Bourne 2, Fantastic 4, Forrest Gump, I Robot, Charlie Chocolate, Jurassic 3
Aug - Rush Hour 2, Signs, Ame Pie 2
Sep - None
Oct - None
Nov - Harry 1/2/4, 8 Mile, Monsters, Incredibles, Toy Story 2, Grinch, Aladdin, Rocky 4, Back to Future 2, Waterboy, Ace Ventura
Dec - LOTR 1/2/3, Narnia
Borat does not fit anywhere on that list.
Only 18 movies were outside of summer blockbuster months and those were super-hyped/advertised by studios and well known by public (except 1, more on this later).
From list, only 6 are R-rated.
Indy small movies that are comparable to Borat are Diary, Fah 9/11 and Blair Witch. 9/11 and Blair had obscene WOM via anti-Bush sentiment and Internet buzz (1st of its kind for movies). They had smaller releases pre-open wk to create WOM. Diary was a surprise hit (lone exception) but that had a very large African-Ame audience. That bring up Ori King of Comedy (13K) but that had same audience as Diary.
Heck, even the studio admitted the movie is not tracking well and reason for opening at 800. How often does a studio do that w/ their own movie???
OK, you say a smaller release might provide higher ave but if recent movies w/ similar theatres ct like Chicago, Crouching Tiger, Evita, Royal Tenabaums, About Schmidt, Hand Rock Cradle, Brokeback Mountain, The Doors, Dead Poet Society, Boyz in Hood, When Harry Met Sally, Ame Beauty couldn't even do 14K, don't see how Borat can do 15K.
Borat will be a hit given the very positive WOM and critics review, but no way will it get to 12 mil this weekend w/ this few theatres, much less the 16/18/20 mil that have been predicted here.
i just popped it...these fu-king things drive me up the wall sometimes...
now have
over11
under 13
under 16
i would have to think under16 is still "safe" (i hope) but 9/11 did over 20million on under 900 theatres...so...who the hell knows...
i cant get into greek...i was hoping maybe they'd have their lines up...
now have
over11
under 13
under 16
i would have to think under16 is still "safe" (i hope) but 9/11 did over 20million on under 900 theatres...so...who the hell knows...
i cant get into greek...i was hoping maybe they'd have their lines up...
